水中大肠杆菌检测传感器的稳定性

为了找到传感器稳定性最好时的脉冲周期,对传感器检测系统进行优化,实验研究了传感器检测饮用水中大肠杆菌时,脉冲周期对传感器稳定性的影响。传感器的构成属于三电极系统,采用常规脉冲伏安法进行检测。结果显示:脉冲周期为20,40,80 ms时传感器稳定性较好,基本不会影响检测结果;脉冲周期为100 ms时稳定性很差,对检测结果有较大影响。实验表明,选择合适的脉冲周期,加以硬件和软件补偿,可以使传感器获得较好的稳定性。     

Demand forecasting by temporal aggregation

Demand forecasting performance is subject to the uncertainty underlying the time series an organization is dealing with. There are many approaches that may be used to reduce uncertainty and thus to improve forecasting performance. One intuitively appealing such approach is to aggregate demand in lower‐frequency “time buckets.” The approach under concern is termed to as temporal aggregation, and in this article, we investigate its impact on forecasting performance. We assume that the nonaggregated demand follows either a moving average process of order one or a first‐order autoregressive process and a single exponential smoothing (SES) procedure is used to forecast demand. These demand processes are often encountered in practice and SES is one of the standard estimators used in industry. Theoretical mean‐squared error expressions are derived for the aggregated and nonaggregated demand to contrast the relevant forecasting performances. The theoretical analysis is supported by an extensive numerical investigation and experimentation with an empirical dataset. The results indicate that performance improvements achieved through the aggregation approach are a function of the aggregation level, the smoothing constant, and the process parameters. Valuable insights are offered to practitioners and the article closes with an agenda for further research in this area. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 60: 479–498, 2013     

高焓高压空气加热器壁面传热过程数值计算

以一种高焓高压空气加热器为研究对象,对其冷却通道的流动和传热进行了三维数值仿真,冷却剂采用液态水,燃烧室和喷管分别采用不同的壁面材料,考虑壁面材料物性随温度的变化,并通过加热器热试验证了数值仿真结果的正确性。在此基础上,对比分析了气体辐射、冷却通道结构以及冷却水的流动方式对壁面换热的影响。结果表明:气体辐射对加热器燃烧室段壁面换热影响较大,对喷管壁面换热无明显的影响。在传热计算中,忽略气体辐射会引起较大的误差;冷却通道数和宽度存在最优组合,使得壁面换热量最大。冷却水的流动方式对燃气侧壁面温度影响较小,但对冷却液侧壁面温度的影响较大。     

面向混部云失败批处理作业的预测算法

为了降低混部云失败批处理作业的风险,使用K-means聚类算法将批处理作业分为四类,在分类的基础上提出了二层嵌套分类模型(two-layer nested classification model, TLNM),实现了基于TLNM的预测算法。基于Ali Trace 2018数据集上的实验结果表明,该算法的接受者操作特性(receiver operating characteristic, ROC)曲线明显优于其他常用分类器,ROC曲线下面积(即AUC)可以达到0.978,表明该算法具有良好的分类性能。同时召回率可以达到0.951,通过混淆矩阵可以看出TLNM算法能够准确预测出执行失败的批处理作业。     

Deterministic inventory lot‐size models under inflation with shortages and deterioration for fluctuating demand

In this paper, we extend the inventory lot‐size models to allow for inflation and fluctuating demand (which is more general than constant, increasing, decreasing, and log‐concave demand patterns). We prove that the optimal replenishment schedule not only exists but is also unique. Furthermore, we show that the total cost associated with the inventory system is a convex function of the number of replenishments. Hence, the search for the optimal number of replenishments is simplified to finding a local minimum. Finally, several numerical examples are provided to illustrate the results. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 144–158, 2001     

论新疆民族体育的共性与个性

新疆民族传统体育是中华民族文化的一部分 ,它的产生和发展形式有着与中华民族体育共同之处 ,也同时由于地域、自然环境的明显差异和人文背景不同 ,所以 ,它又具有鲜明的民族个性。随着历史的发展和社会的进步 ,新疆民族传统体育项目已摈弃了迷信落后的东西 ,经过锤练 ,已成为中国少数民族运动会的主要项目之一     

Computational analysis of MMAP[K]/PH[K]/1 queues with a mixed FCFS and LCFS service discipline

This paper studies a queueing system with a Markov arrival process with marked arrivals and PH‐distribution service times for each type of customer. Customers (regardless of their types) are served on a mixed first‐come‐first‐served (FCFS) and last‐come‐first‐served (LCFS) nonpreemptive basis. That is, when the queue length is N (a positive integer) or less, customers are served on an FCFS basis; otherwise, customers are served on an LCFS basis. The focus is on the stationary distribution of queue strings, busy periods, and waiting times of individual types of customers. A computational approach is developed for computing the stationary distribution of queue strings, the mean of busy period, and the means and variances of waiting times. The relationship between these performance measures and the threshold number N is analyzed in depth numerically. It is found that the variance of the virtual (actual) waiting time of an arbitrary customer can be reduced by increasing N. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 399–421, 2000     

Determining a threshold control policy for an imperfect production system with rework jobs

Consider a threshold control policy for an imperfect production system with only a work center handling both regular and rework jobs. An imperfect production system studied here, generates defect jobs by factors other than machine failures. A threshold control or (ω, s) policy sets the guideline for a work center to switch between regular and rework jobs. A production cycle begins with loading and processing of several batches of regular jobs with a lot size equal to s. The outcome of each completed regular job is an independent Bernoulli trial with three possibilities: good, rework, or scrap. Once the work center accumulates more than a threshold ω of rework jobs, it finishes the last batch of regular jobs and switches to rework jobs. The objective of this research is to find a threshold ω and a lot size s that maximize the average long‐term profit. The ultimate goal is to construct a simple algorithm to search for ω and s that can be implemented directly in production management systems, as a result of this work. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 273–301, 1999